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Thread: NFL Football

  1. #1581
    Darth Small Macheath's Avatar
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    Okay. I promise I'm not as salty as this post is gonna seem. It's just that the closer I look here, the more I'm in awe.

    It's time for (what is becoming an annual tradition, in the form of) my fantasy football Bad Luck Griping Post!

    Drewbie will tell you I could've logged in Sunday morning, realized Adam Thielen was declared out for MNF, slotted in a different WR from my bench, and I would've beaten him if I had. But I'm here to tell you that doesn't matter. All six playoff spots were sewn up a week ago, before this matchup even happened. I'm out. I'm always out.

    But why am I out? Oh ho ho. Have a seat and listen to my story.

    471030-Header-noscale.jpg

    If I've done the math correctly, my team scored the 4th most points in the league, with an average of 136 per game. Respectable! But it doesn't matter, because I had far and away the most points scored against me, at a whopping 142 per game.

    Thanks to that constant ass-pounding, I finished 8th in the standings, behind a guy who scored an average of 112 per game.

    In 2019, the average weekly score (across all teams) in our league was 128 per game. In any given week, find me on the scoreboard, and I was getting trashed by an average score of 142-136.

    In 13 weeks, how many times did I score more than the "league average" of 128 points, and lose anyway?

    Guess. Go on, guess.

    Nynny did it three times. Drewbie did it twice. Sheil did it once. Most teams did it zero (or one) times.

    You wouldn't expect it to happen very often. In a homeostatic system, you'd think scoring "more than average" would result, generally speaking, in a win.

    I scored over 128 and lost five times. In fact, in weeks where I scored over the "league average" of 128, I had a losing record of 4-5.

    EDIT: And, by the way, we're not talking about "Mac squeaked out 129 points and lost, boo-hoo." My scores in those 5 losses all ranged from 138 to 143 points! Remarkably consistent losing performances. <pats self on back>

    Okay, maybe it's just bad luck! Nynny wasn't that far behind me (with three >128 losses), he had an unlucky year too!

    Well, here's my "Points Against" rank stretching back a few years:

    Year PA (rank) Final result
    2019 1st Out of the playoffs
    2018 3rd Out of the playoffs
    2017 2nd Out of the playoffs
    2016 1st Out of the playoffs
    2015 6th Won the whole damn league!
    2014 4th Won the whole damn league!

    Fuck me! I've been getting absolutely dunked on since 2016. The last two times I finished outside the top 3 in points against, I got into the playoffs and won the goddamn league championship.

  2. #1582
    Tiny Dancer Drewbie's Avatar
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    I did find it interesting that had you played my schedule, you'd be 7-4, while I would be 5-6 if played yours (minus the games we played against each other where we split, so 8-5 for you and 6-7 for me), so you make the playoffs and I miss.

    Shitty luck man.

  3. #1583
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    Stupid game anyway. This is why I'm glad we don't put money on it. If we did I would totally be out.

  4. #1584
    Darth Small Macheath's Avatar
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    I was trying to follow the end of this game by reading the play-by-play feed on nfl.com, and it was exciting even without seeing any of it.

    Now I have seen it: Falcons score 2 touchdowns in 2 seconds, beat Niners.

  5. #1585
    Darth Small Macheath's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Macheath View Post
    Preston and Za'Darius Smith(s) have been dynamite, man. Through 6 games, they've combined for 13 sacks.

    Clay Matthews and Nick Perry combined for 19.5 in the entire 2017 and 2018 seasons, total. So I ain't used to this.
    Z hasn't had a sack in the past 3 games, but he's still got the highest pass rush win rate & double team rate in the league, so he's definitely doing his job. Preston got shut out this week too, but even with that drought, this duo has 21.5 sacks on the year (with two games left to play) and I'm over the moon.

    To cherry pick some more unfair stats, Minnesota re-signed Anthony Barr for a comparable $13.5M/year, and in well over 800 snaps he's got 1 sack. GB's first round pick (Rashan Gary) is backing up the Smith bros, but in 200 snaps he has 2 sacks. (Unfair because Barr plays in a 4-3 and isn't explicitly a pass rush specialist, but his name came up as a potential OLB signing for GB during the offseason.)

    PS: Clay is having his best year since 2014, but Nick Perry still out of the league.

  6. #1586
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    Congratulations, Packer fans! Your defense was impressive tonight.
    - Definitely

  7. #1587
    Darth Small Macheath's Avatar
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    Yeah, that was some great defense. Kirk "Heckin' Mad" Cousins looked awful, but a lot of that was just that he had somebody (usually named Za'darius) in his lap after 0.8 seconds on nearly every snap.

    GB's offense was less impressive, but a lot of that was Minnesota playing extremely solid defense too. That said, Rodgers' INT was the ugliest throw I've seen him make in a couple years.

  8. #1588
    Darth Small Macheath's Avatar
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    Regardless of how this one turns out, Aaron Rodgers has been hot trash all day long. Three quarters of his passes are high, low, off target, missing everyone by 1-2 yards. Jimmy Graham had his signature bad drop on the first play of the game, but after that, the few times Rodgers has put it on the money, his receivers have hauled it in. Unless you wanna say every single dude out there is running bad routes, can't blame this on anybody but the big boy.

    EDIT: That said, I'll take an ugly win in a potentially horrible trap game, 100% of the time. Just look at what happened to the Pats against Miami today: they're gonna be playing in the wildcard round (for the first time in 10 years ) thanks to that loss.
    Last edited by Macheath; 12-29-2019 at 02:34 PM.

  9. #1589
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    Hmm... I agree.

    Am I the only one that is ok with the two seed? Most likely outcome I would guess is:

    • Seahawks beat the eagles (although I really like the eagles in a upset)
    • Saints beat the Vikings

    This is great because the Vikings are out. Seattle goes to play in Santa Clara. Seattle can win there and we get the saints in the dead of winter, and it’s a night game with early forecast calling for snow. Brees is the man and I love him but I don’t think a 40 year old Brees wants to play in the snow.

    If Seattle goes to Santa Clara and beats the niners and we pull out of the saints game I love the odds of beating Seattle at home.

  10. #1590
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    In other football news, Bakhtiari's starting to look like the Undertaker.
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